A Wet Spring, a Dry April, and What 13% Off the Herd Valuation Really Tells Us

It has been a busy seven weeks since my last piece, and the contrast in ground conditions from then to now is staggering. Back in February I was frustrated at not being able to get a wheel on the field. Now we are openly hoping for a drop of rain.

The catch-up has been substantial. Spring barley is in. Nearly all the slurry is on. T0s on the wheat are done, T1s on the barley are done, and the large majority of the fertiliser has been applied. It is the sort of stretch that reminds you why we invest where we do on the contracting and application side: precision, capacity, and getting the work done in the window we are given.

On the topic of contrasts, we have just been through our year-end valuation for the accounts. Most people are well aware of what fuel has done recently, particularly over the last seven weeks. Far fewer will have been tracking pig pricing in the same way, and I understand why. For us, and I suspect for plenty of others, the movement in pig pricing over the last twelve months has had a far bigger effect on our valuation than fuel ever could.

The headline figure: despite our headcount being very similar to this time last year, the value of the herd is down by around 13%. That is the size of the swing in pig prices over twelve months.

What is not said often enough is the longer view. Current pricing is over 60% up on this time of year a decade ago. So in absolute terms, things look stronger than they did. That should not be where the conversation ends. Pricing needs to head back toward the highs we saw in mid to late 2023, given the increases we have all absorbed in buildings, labour, machinery and transport in the meantime.

A figure that has stayed with me from this round of looking at the numbers: in April 2016, around 80,000 pigs were in the sample feeding into the SPP, at an average weight of about 85kg. The latest sample sits at around 50,000 pigs at roughly 95kg. Higher weights, but still about 30% less total liveweight in the sample. Whether that reflects fewer pigs in the UK overall, or simply a smaller proportion being captured by the reporting, the direction of travel is the same.

If the UK pig industry has, on the whole, been surviving rather than thriving for the last ten years, then the conversation about pig pricing in relation to cost of production is far from finished.